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Scenarios
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Friday, December 14, 2007
1942 Views ::
11 Solutions ::  :: Diplomacy, Tactics
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Sometimes real games that I play, accidentally offer a board configuration that are so well-balanced that demand more examination and are just fun to think about. Here is one of these configurations.
The world in this game is divided between two groups. Three players own continents and three others don't. The three that have continents are well-off. They are like the rich nations of a planet, living in harmoney with no wars between them. Some like Brown have colonized lands far away from their home (Australia) and want to expand beyond their own continents.
Meanwhile, the situation for continent-less players seem to be dire. They have amassed large number of armies and seem to be ready to fight. Two of them (Black and Red) are competing over a very crowded Australia. They are not fighting because they know that the pair that fights will lose and the third player comes to dominate the continent. Blue on the other hand is squeezed between the rich and the poor, not knowing which way to turn.
In this world, anyone can win. It is a matter of having a vision and a sound strategy that you stick to. Nevertheless there is going to be only one winner. The players are all experienced and are unlikely to make even a single mistake. If you make a risky move, you can easily get kicked out.
Risk Map: ThreeContinentsThreeNot --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor
Now, suppose you are playing as Blue and it is Red's turn. The card posession is shown in the following table along with total armies. Next cashing cards is at 8 and the sequence is 4,6,8,10,12,... There are no treaties in the game so far. Everyone has been quiet. They know that this is the critical points in the game and that players will make their big moves shortly.
| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
| Red |
Yellow |
Brown |
Blue |
Green |
Black |
| Armies: 23 |
Armies: 19 |
Armies: 22 |
Armies: 26 |
Armies: 23 |
Armies: 17 |
| Cards left: 1 |
Cards left: 3 |
Cards left: 2 |
Cards left: 2 |
Cards left: 5 |
Cards left: 3 |
As Blue, what would you do? Which way would you expand to? How do you think this game is going to unfold?
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| Your Solutions |
 By
samuel chin @
Saturday, December 15, 2007 2:30 AM
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As Blue I will do the turtle strategy.As Yellow i will destroy SA and get NA.
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By
samuel chin @
Saturday, December 15, 2007 2:50 AM
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Oh i forgot, blue can kill black and get a chain reaction.
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By
samuel chin @
Saturday, December 15, 2007 2:51 AM
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But red might do it first.
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By
Grant Blackburn @
Saturday, December 15, 2007 5:02 PM
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Scenario 8
This scenario looks fantastic and I think we can all learn a lot from it. I think however it is less balanced than first meets the eye. I have questions before discussing the scenario: what are the fortification rules? In Classic Risk you can only go from one territory to an adjacent one. The new rules say you can go from one to another along a connect route over as many territories that are connected in a single path. This is important when considering strategy.
Red: In a tough spot with only one card and no continent but gets go first. The question here is: to go for Australia now or make noise elsewhere? With only 3 reinforcements at this point, you can certainly make big move Down Under, but you may be too weak afterwards. My next decision as Red would be to get a card, either in Australia or take Scandinavia from Brown. I have to think about whether I want to stock up in Australia or pile them in Europe to make an eventual run in North America. Diplomacy for Red seems to be difficult since he doesn’t have much to offer the other players and he doesn’t stand to gain much either as a deal may block some of his moves. Yellow may want a deal, but does he want to help him get North America?
Yellow: I think besides Black, Yellow is the weakest in the game. Yellow can’t protect North America from both Brown and Black, but this depends on whether he can turn in his 3 cards. If he can, he has plenty of options, and can try to take South America (he needs to think about Green here as well, retake North America or both if he is really aggressive. If he has no cards, then he may want to just take away Brown’s advantage in South America since he can’t count on keeping continents with out more troops or get a deal from him which Brown will likely do given his situation. I think a deal for Yellow will be imperative at this point, and one from Red might be nice, but unlikely. One from Black, once he removes him from Alaska would be a boon if he can get it but that will be a hard sell and I wouldn’t believe Black anyway.
Brown: At first Brown looks okay, but if Yellow does indeed go after him, he will have lost a great deal and then be poor. So, he needs to make a deal in a hurry. He either needs a deal from Yellow and then go for North Africa to take away the continent from Green and/or do some damage in Australia. (Of course, maybe Yellow makes a mistake, doesn’t deal with Brown but doesn’t fight him either, but that’s just silly talk.) If Red does decides to go after Brown in Australia, then he is in a real pickle. So Brown needs to look at what he has left and put all his troops there. Brown will either need to fight back Yellow and try to regain South America (assuming no deal), eradicate Red out of Australia (but keep Black in Indonesia as a buffer, hoping his 3 cards don’t get cashed) or try something totally different like making a rush through Africa or Asia, which ever is easier.
Blue: Now we get to our turn. Blue is the strongest troop-wise, so he may have to face a few jabs from Red or Yellow if they try to take Ural, China and maybe India. Red may want to go for a pincers attack on Australia and place troops in Mongolia to take China and put some pressure on Black. Whatever happens, his major threat of Black in Siam and Green in Africa must be dealt with. Blue needs diplomacy at this point to either get Black to focus on Red or to get someone to help him Africa.
We know Green is actually the strongest player in game at this point, with 5 cards giving him at least 8, possibly 10 troops on his turn. If Blue or someone else does not take something away from Africa, Green will get 14-16 reinforcements and nothing to do but expand and fortify. Unless Brown gets North Africa, or Yellow turns in cards and is able to make an attack in Africa, Blue will need to take either Egypt (first choice) or East Africa or, for those true diplomats out there, make a deal with Green and create a polar world. How successful he is will determine his next move, but in either case, he needs to deal with Red and Black and he needs to create an alliance with one or both of them and get them to fight each other. IF Brown is near elimination, Blue needs to think about how he can finish him off. 3 cards right now would be really nice and he would start the next turn with 6!
Green will be doing some mop up, but with his huge haul of reinforcements, he needs to think about how he can maintain his edge in the game. He will need to take away South America’s bonus, secure Africa, put pressure on Europe and really find a way to deal with Blue.
Black will still be around, and hopefully he can’t turn cards in or else Blue will be in a little trouble. If anything happens in Australia and Black gets cards, he needs to go in and take it out. With Australia his and Siam fortified, he can then look at Kamchatka and decide if he wants to push for more in Asia and eventually unite his two armies or make life difficult for North America. Black may want to go after Blue in Asia since he may have spent much of his resources dealing with Green. It all depends on what opportunity presents itself.
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By
Ehsan Honary @
Sunday, December 16, 2007 1:24 AM
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Nice analysis Grant. The fortification rule is that you may move as much armies as you like from only one territory to another as long as they are connected. Most games are these days played like this and I generally assume that's the rule.
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By
Grant Blackburn @
Sunday, December 16, 2007 5:38 AM
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Thank you for the clarification. I do believe you are correct about the use of the newer fortification rule. My friends and I use it now almost all the time, but every now and then we get nostalgic revert back to the older rule.
I wonder what the rest of the Risk community thinks of this scenario and my analysis. I haven't really answered all of your questions about this scenario, hopefully I have also raised a few more questions about it and brought some ideas to the surface.
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By
Grant Blackburn @
Monday, December 17, 2007 1:42 PM
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It looks to me like Red will pull the trigger and start a fight in Australia, and then depending on his Risk factor, he may take a swipe at Scandinavia. Yellow needs to toke out South America by invading Venezuela and Brown should be in a tough spot. If not, he should attack Africa and then fortify. Blue will be left with addign to China and India while also attacking Africa from the Middle East. I think Black in thisd game is the Wild card.
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By
Luther Loehrke @
Tuesday, April 01, 2008 1:45 AM
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Blue has a tough match of it here... from my experience, he has two options in the immediate term. First, he can move south into Africa. This move, while appearing bad to start, could potentially help him in the long run. He makes a dangerous enemy in Green, but a potential ally in Brown. If Blue kills enough armies and survives the counterattack, with a little diplomacy and luck he can end up with Africa if Brown helps him out and the other players are preoccupied. The other, much less risky (heh), option is to consolidate by reinforcing the large army, moving north for a territory, and moving the Ukranian force in as well. This is basically a stopgap measure, though, since he really hasn't done anything except let the his (likely) mortal enemy Green get that much stronger. Trying for Europe always seems to end up a loser's game, and while it is possible to continue north and eventually get North America it would probably be too late to catch up to the major players (Brown and Green). As I see it, the best Blue will likely get is second if he moves south, takes out Green, and gets lots of help from a thankful Brown. Red and Black are playing for last place, barring a successful monster army buildup. Yellow will probably end up in a decent position by virtue of being well away from the large armies and crucial territories.
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By
Ehsan Honary @
Tuesday, April 01, 2008 12:57 PM
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Good post Luther. Going for Green is not a bad idea though if you can only get allied with Brown, otherwise it is a suicide since you and Green will become weak in the process for Brown and other player's advantage.
Nevertheless if you can pull it off, its a good move.
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By
mike ekim @
Friday, July 11, 2008 4:15 AM
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why do people assume that once a player attacks one other , they will keep going on untill their end ?
In such cases I tend to pince a certain opponent 1 or 2 turns and make a truce deal so to put attention elsewhere.
You mentioned 3 players have bonuszones ? I see only 2.
RED will wait. Perhaps make 2 dicerolls against brown aussie..but really cant od much more.
Turtle.
YELLOW is weak and would place his 3 new troops in mexico ..probably hitting venezuela..but if his first dice throw is shite he'll cancel.. a proposal deal with brown as to allow brown to put his troops in aussie wont be accepted as brown would still face too much opposition (time) there and has to worry about green africa as well.
Yellow will put his most troops in mexico and only if defense there i good/holds he'll think of dealing with black in Alaska.
Cashing cards would make him more secure..but not much.
BROWN keeps on defending SA warding off yellow attacks..cannot yet afford placing troops on australia..but should do so immediately when green invades SA from Africa (to let Yellow collide with Green).
BLUE can only annoy green.. Brown in SA is a slightly bigger threat to green.
But if yellow invaded venezuela..then blue should consider hitting east africa first and then move his armies to Ukraine and slowly grow there.
Alternatively you'd invade east africa AND south Africa and stick there with all your troops.
Green then becomes a buffer to the outside world...I'd probably do that (also because green has 5 cards..! strike now!).
yeah race to South Africa and grow from there.
GREEN has 5 cards and a bonusarea... defend it and build up.
BLACK is hopeless..stick to Siam and hope for break out opportunities (into Australia when red/brown are wasted or to Europe (china 1-Ural 1)).
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By
mike ekim @
Friday, July 11, 2008 7:25 AM
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I see now that my tactic is the same as Luther..:)
I really didnot read it before.
But another comment on
"though if you can only get allied with Brown, otherwise it is a suicide since you and Green will become weak in the process for Brown and other player's advantage. "
Green has 5 cards.why ? because he had shite cards the turns before... chances are that he doesnt get the full house..so it is less likely that he can immediately kill off all your bulk troops in s-africa.
Second..no need for a special "treaty" with brown.
You only need to hold on the fight with green long enough, and automatically brown ôr any other stronger player will rise and stab green partially(West Africa plug) in the back...
Time will do the work.
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