Treaty with Yellow
First I shall try to make a treaty with Yellow for my east border. Hence, Yellow will not attack Ukraine or Southern Europe and I will not attack Ural, Afghanistan or Middle East. This effectively lets Yellow to conquer Asia. So I am giving something in return for the treaty. Blue does not have much power to be threatening so no one will listen to him, and his propaganda won't work. Green cannot brainwash Yellow either since the offer for Yellow is very good or if he doesn't accept it he might have to go for Africa anyway. So the offer will most likely be accepted by Yellow.
Now that my South and East are protected, all I have to be concerned is North America. However, Green is trying to get it too. So it is going to be two players against one, and Blue won't have a chance! Eventually Blue will be wiped out, though it is difficult to predict who is going to get the cards. At that point Yellow is trying to get Asia. Green knows that he has to prevent this or he will loose. Besides, Yellow can get Middle East and threaten two African territories from one.
This is bad news for Green: he has to try to balance the border and place armies in two territories as a result. Over time, Yellow will be able to break into Africa. So if Green is smart, he should never let go of Middle East or that will be the end of him. Therefore, there will be a conflict based on Middle East between Yellow and Green. This means that Red has an advantage since he has only one front and he will be more successful in the battle of North America in comparison with Green or Yellow. Eventually Green will collapse. However, Red can easily expand to South America and end up with 5+5+2 = 12 for continents in comparison with 2+7 = 9 that Yellow might get.
It is always difficult to guess the end game as cards play a very important role (even more important than continents). But generally speaking, at this instance of the game, this seems to be the right thing to do.
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