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16 Dec 2007 6:12 AM  

Total Diplomacy Risk Map: Tipping-Point
Risk Map: Tipping-Point --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor

For the above exercise, I tried to create a challenging situation that probably wouldn't happen in Risk or at least very rarely.  I did this with the thought that if we can over come something more difficult in practice than what we would face in the real game, then we will be better prepared to perform.  The above map is an amalgam of some common Risk experiences to create a challenging situation for the advanced Risk strategist.

Lets assume we are playing standard rules, with card trade-in value going up in normal fashion (we are now 10) and we are using  the new fortification rules (fortify one terr. to another terr. along a connected path).  Assume everyone at this stage has 2 cards in their hand. 

Turn order: Yellow first, then Red, Blue, Brown, Black and finally Green.  Assume no deals have been made yet except for some informal talks and obvious arms build up at the borders leading to the now unstable situation you see here.  With everyone at two cards and the trade value at 10, everyone knows something has to give.  

Pick a color and describe your next set of moves and what you diplomacy you will try to aid in your plans.   Lets bounce a few strategies and tactics off of each other and lets see where we stand.  Can you survive this tough fight?  Show us you can. 


Grant Blackburn
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16 Dec 2007 1:59 PM  

The fact is that black would not worry about green because he only recieves 2 troops aturn. He would place armies in Middle East and threaten Blue and Brown. This will trigger a weakness in Blue and Brown so Red and Yellow will sieze the chance to attack. Because of North America, and Black isnt much of a threat, Green will attack North America. To sum up, the smaller contintents have an advantage because no one thinks its much of a thraet. Yellow has a chance to kill people as he borders more people. I think Yellow will win.


2¢ is my son so we have the same email. Sorry for any confusion.
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17 Dec 2007 9:55 AM  

What about this: IF Yellow doesn't attack Red, Red can either setup an alliance with Yellow or at least whittle down Venezuela (attack enough times so you bring his army total down to 1-2 with out bringing your won total down below 5-6 and maintaining a numbers advantage). Doing this creates a buffer betwen you and South America. This will bring down Yellow's power dramatically since he can only place 5 armies total on the board. With out a counter to Brown in Africa, He may want to attack South America. But if he does this, Africa will be vulnerable to attack from Europe or Asia.


Grant Blackburn
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17 Dec 2007 1:50 PM  
Black, though most powerful is out of luck since all others have well defined continents while Black has not. So it makes sense for everyone to crawl into Asia and attack Black slowly so that they don’t have to attack each others. The only player who won’t be able to do that is Yellow. This means that he has to choose between Red or Brown. This is a tough call since there are no deals and we know nothing of the players personality or history. Brown and Red have both got equal armies, so the choice really is a matter of taste for Yellow. He needs to get cards, so he really has to attack one or the other. Others will simply need to attack Black, get cards and reinforce. Over time, North America and Europe will lead.

If Yellow attacks Brown, Red has a huge advantage. Not only he is leading the game, Yellow is also getting progressively weaker because of the corrosive war with Brown. So If Yellow is gone then Red will probably go to win the game. So, Red should try to get Yellow and Brown attack each other. Maybe he can make a treaty over South America.

If Yellow goes for Red, then Europe is suddenly the only power with no conflicts and receives largest bonus. If Blue can also get a treaty with Brown, then he can easily go to win the game.
I am afraid I don’t count on Green’s fortunes considering the competition.

So, this game’s progress highly depends on Yellow’s choices. Interestingly he also gets to play first, so all the more reason. If Yellow does nothing and just builds up, Red should initiate an arms rate and bankrupt Yellow with a cold war style strategy.

So, the winner is probably Red or Blue, depending on Yellow’s choice.

Ehsan Honary
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18 Dec 2007 7:57 PM  
I think Ehsan's analysis is on point, but I have a few questions: First, I truly believe the Yellow's most important move is to attack Red. Given the comments you and made earlier, it seems as though Red will be in a great position strategically if Yellow does not attack him. Yellow should get a border deal with Brown and take out Central America. Brown has an incentive to make a deal with someone, and North Africa is under siege from both Brazil and Western Europe. If Brown attacks Brazil, Europe suddenly has an opening. If Yellow attacks Brown, Europe gets the same opening. I think Europe needs to wait on the Mediterranean front until something develops down south.

I agree that Black, going second to last and having no continent needs to slowly expanded into, but I don't think it needs to be done a behest of other fronts. Green has no where to go but Asia and if Green is smart, he will put a lot of pressure on Black. This means Black needs to concentrate on keeping Green in check until he can get cards for a large invasion. In the meantime, Black can easily peck away at the Ukraine and maybe try to work a deal with Brown.

Grant Blackburn
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19 Dec 2007 5:54 AM  
Grant, one thing to remember when playing as Yellow is that he has selfish interest. I.e. he is not going to sacrifice his own position to make sure that Red doesn't become too powerful. Of course any player always tries to make sure that no other player becomes too powerful, but not necessarily too much at your expense because then others will simply benefit from this.

For Yellow it is always easier to expand to Africa than NA, because its smaller. So he may think I will go for Brown, hoping that Europe would then realise that Yellow may become weak and Red may go south to get SA. Blue may then think that if he doesn't take care of NA, it could become too late to do anything about it.

Black is extremely squeezed next to Green and Green has no choice but to continuously attack Black. A deal wont make sense, so Black and Green will simply kill each other over time.

The question I am interested in is what would you do if you were Brown and wanted to exploit these dynamics so you could win despite your current weak position.

Ehsan Honary
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19 Dec 2007 7:09 PM  
I see your point, but I guess we will need to agree to disagree here. I actually think expanding to North America is the safer, easier bet, especially in this instance. I wouldlike to hear your comments on this analysis:
I think that going to Africa from South America is much harder beacuse now you have two continents to contend with, and although Africa is smaller, I find it is just as hard to hold as North America but with a smaller payoff. I like North America for two reasons: first, it is easier to expand slowly and second because of the payoff: 5 bonus armies is the second highest in the game and with 9 territories, also the second highest in hte game, you will get more reinforcements per turn and only have to contend with one empire instead of two if you went through Africa.

I understand what you mean by saying that you will not sacrifice your own position just to prevent someone else from being too powerful, but in some cases you have to think about the trade-off. Unless South America and North America get some kind of deal going, I feel like Red can just wipe him out.

Grant Blackburn
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20 Dec 2007 3:52 AM  
Posted By Europa on 19 Dec 2007 7:09 PM
I think that going to Africa from South America is much harder because now you have two continents to contend with, and although Africa is smaller, I find it is just as hard to hold as North America but with a smaller payoff. I like North America for two reasons: first, it is easier to expand slowly and second because of the payoff: 5 bonus armies is the second highest in the game and with 9 territories, also the second highest in hte game, you will get more reinforcements per turn and only have to contend with one empire instead of two if you went through Africa.

Oh, this is interesting. How about this. As you suggest, NA is bigger and better to control and easier to reinforce. Absolutely agree. Which is why I think when Yellow is going against Red, he has no chance. they simply are not in the same league. Red will wipe Yellow out. So from Yellow's point of view, he is going for the weaker opponent because he may have a chance to bit him. Red has all the incentives in the world to expand to SA. If SA starts attacking him, Red will have one aim in the game: kill Yellow at all costs! The benefits are great, he gets to remove an enemy, he gets to expand and get another continent, all without increasing borders.

Hence, Yellow should always treat Red like a wild bear that can suddenly wake up. Got to be careful.


Ehsan Honary
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20 Dec 2007 3:12 PM  

This is a great debate to have, and I think it is very illuminating.  You bring up another really good point, certainly North America has a huge incentive and as such, this makes the dilemma that much tougher. 

Let me continue to be devil's advocate:
How will it be possible, given the scenario above, the Red will wipe out Yellow?  From a purely tactical standpoint if Red loses Central America to Yellow, As long as Yellow didn’t get destroyed and keeps at least 4 of his armies (I admit, this is one of the weaknesses of the plan, but for any plan to work, you need to get some dice rolls to go your way), Red won’t be able to mount much of a counter attack for while.  He just lost his 5 extra armies and there is some distance between Central America and the next viable threat.  Even if Red puts all of his armies in Ontario, he will have only 4 there and will require a fortify move to get them adjacent to Yellow.  So by the time he can attack, Yellow can bolster his force in Central America and Red will still be vulnerable in Alaska and Greenland. 

I would suspect that as soon as North America lost Central America and Red focused his attention south, opportunistic players will take advantage of the situation move in since red will need to fight on two fronts and this nearly guarantees that he won’t North America back.  Now Red really has a problem.

This is really what Yellow is attempting to do in this situation, cause the balance of power to shift so he doesn’t have to all the work.  A little negotiation, and Red will have Black and Blue all over him!  Remember, Black has no continent, so he has some incentive to move into North America.  And Yellow can keep on doin’ his thing. 

The map below shows what I am talking about.  Peru fortified his one army to Venezuela, we'll assume for this exercise that Yellow has four armies left in his victory over Central America (which means he did pretty well), and Red's response on the next turn could be to reinforce Ontario which had one in it already and placed all three of his reinforcements there for a total of 5.  This means that best case, Red will need to wait at least one turn before he can strike Yellow and will be a tempting target for Black and Blue. 

Total Diplomacy Risk Map: Tipping-Point-post-fort
Risk Map: Tipping-Point-post-fort --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor


 


Grant Blackburn
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21 Dec 2007 6:37 AM  

I admit, this is one of the weaknesses of the plan, but for any plan to work, you need to get some dice rolls to go your way

I guess our debate is heating up but this is so much fun. Ok, here it is:

Risk is a game of probability. So yes, a bit of luck is useful, but you can't count on luck in your plans, because if you lose you will simply say I lost because of bad luck and to be honest you really cant say that.

 So by the time he can attack, Yellow can bolster his force in Central America and Red will still be vulnerable in Alaska and Greenland. 

It's critical to look at incentives. Ok, if Red is attacked by Yellow should he really worry about Blue or Black or Yellow himself. What incentive Blue has to attack NA when he can be threatened immediately by both Green and Black. Black himself is squeezed so badly that a march to NA (and the cost associated with it) simply doesn't make sense.

What you have done is that you have tilted the equation towards Yellow. While previously Red was getting 5 bonus versus Yellow's 2 bonus, now Red is getting nothing and Yellow is getting two. This sounds like the same argument I had when I said the Red can bankrupt Yellow.

However, I still say Red is in a better position to gain on Yellow that Yellow is to gain on Red. The war over central america is corrosive. They both know that if they carry on with this, they will both lose. So there is a limit as to how far they can go. If Yellow can get his back secured (Brazil) then he gets a huge advantage in the current situation to go towards Red. The problem is why should Brown do this. He will be  much better off going towards SA than any other, considering that if Red goes to SA it is Brown that comes under threat.

This is really what Yellow is attempting to do in this situation, cause the balance of power to shift so he doesn’t have to all the work.  A little negotiation, and Red will have Black and Blue all over him!  Remember, Black has no continent, so he has some incentive to move into North America.  And Yellow can keep on doin’ his thing. 

What if Red can make a treaty with Blue. Then he has really only one front with Yellow and Yellow needs to back off. If Black is going to attack Red, Blue can create another front for Black too.

The map below shows what I am talking about.  Peru fortified his one army to Venezuela, we'll assume for this exercise that Yellow has four armies left in his victory over Central America (which means he did pretty well), and Red's response on the next turn could be to reinforce Ontario which had one in it already and placed all three of his reinforcements there for a total of 5.  This means that best case, Red will need to wait at least one turn before he can strike Yellow and will be a tempting target for Black and Blue. 

All of this depends on Yellow being able to get such a good luck and everyone else following a gang-attack. No strategy will hold if everyone goes against you.

The only solution is to use diplomacy. Now when it comes to diplomacy, you are always in a better position if you have more to offer and more people to interact with (yes being at the centre of the world helps). Considering these parameters, Red has many more advantages than Yellow and all things being equal he should be able to leverage it. He should engage with others before its too late and when he finds himself in a war of attrition with Yellow. Like chess, he has to set the scene diplomatically and just wait for Yellow's attack so that he falls in the diplomatical trap. (and of course Red can say Yohhahahah in the background but let's ignore that for time being)

Consider this: what if Yellow attacked and this is what happened. Red will retaliate the next turn and will do so indefinitely. Brown's temptation increases every turn. Yellow has two fronts. No chance of survival!

 

Total Diplomacy Risk Map: Tipping-Point-As-Red
Risk Map: Tipping-Point-As-Red --- Open Copy in Risk Map Editor


Ehsan Honary
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21 Dec 2007 6:57 PM  

I see your point and perhaps I need to reevaluate my thinking. I do have a few questions:
1. It seems South America then is in a tough bind in almost any game that has a strong Africa and North America, since it is much more desireable for them to invade South America because it is so small and does not increase the number of borders you have. So what is South America to do? What are the points that South America must make in order to remain a factor in the game?

2. I wonder if Black being squeezed means that in fact he should go to North America since the land there is more barren than else where. Black will see if Yellow attacks Red, so he will know if that is a good move and plus, Yellow can bargain with him prior to making the move. Black can't really expand elsewhere without major resistance. Granted, I wouldn't want to be in Black's shoes because his options don't look good.

3. The map you show above shows Brazil with only 5 armies, in my map he had 9. Where did they go? Also, it appears that Europe is weaker in the fronts than Brazil is (with 9 armies) so it seems that Brown has a good chance of taking Europe away from his 5 bonus armies whihc seem like more of a threat to me than Yellow's 2. Why wouldn't Brown go for that while also expanding that border? If Brown attacks Yellow, this actually invites Blue to move south since Brown's North African Front will be compromised. What do you think?

4. Any war Yellow gets into will be corrosive, there has been a build up all around him. Should he instead not attack out and just slowly grow with his 5 reinforcements? What if Yellow were to peck away at Brown's North Africa so that Brazil has 6-9 armies and North Africa has 1-5 armies? Attack North Africa enough to weaken it but not take it. This would again invite Blue downward and leave North Africa in a weakend state and allow Yellow to expand North knowing his border in Brazil is a little safer.

5. Finally, I still think Red will be in a tough spot IF Yellow is successful in dislodging Central America. Red will never be able to get enough reinforcements in hte short term and he is too far away to really make a stand. This allows Yellow to build on his success both in Brazil and Central America in subsequent turns. Just how is North America going to muster a good enough fight against Yellow short-term?

I understand that Yellow will be Red's target the rest of the game, but isn't he already? If Yellow doesn't move in, Red will be getting 5 armies extra to Yellow's 2 and eventually the odds will swing in Red's favor. The time to strike is now!

I look forward to your response, this is a great debate and I think we will all learn a great deal from it.


Grant Blackburn
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22 Dec 2007 2:18 AM  

Posted By Europa on 21 Dec 2007 6:57 PM
1. It seems South America then is in a tough bind in almost any game that has a strong Africa and North America, since it is much more desireable for them to invade South America because it is so small and does not increase the number of borders you have. So what is South America to do? What are the points that South America must make in order to remain a factor in the game?

Yes, that's exactly the idea behind this kind of scenarios; To evaluate the options a player has in South America. By no means it's simple and it highly depends on the map configurations. It comes down to one thing, player is SA should choose between the two. He can't fight both Africa and NA at the same time. All of his diplomacy and strategies should be based on this weakness.

2. I wonder if Black being squeezed means that in fact he should go to North America since the land there is more barren than else where. Black will see if Yellow attacks Red, so he will know if that is a good move and plus, Yellow can bargain with him prior to making the move. Black can't really expand elsewhere without major resistance. Granted, I wouldn't want to be in Black's shoes because his options don't look good.

You are absolutely right. Black's choice depends on what Yellow does. Black should simply pick a weak player and start attacking him. If Yellow attacked Africa, Black can also attack Africa as well. In fact, Black can also switch to reinforce-and-hold strategy  so that he can go for eliminating a player and getting his cards rather than focusing on continents.

3. The map you show above shows Brazil with only 5 armies, in my map he had 9. Where did they go? Also, it appears that Europe is weaker in the fronts than Brazil is (with 9 armies) so it seems that Brown has a good chance of taking Europe away from his 5 bonus armies whihc seem like more of a threat to me than Yellow's 2. Why wouldn't Brown go for that while also expanding that border? If Brown attacks Yellow, this actually invites Blue to move south since Brown's North African Front will be compromised. What do you think?

Perhaps I should have explained this more. I assumed a worst case scenario when Yellow attacked Central America. In that attack Yellow lost a fair bit, so he had to balance his borders and fortified some armies from Brazil to Central America. That's why Brazil has only 5 armies. 

As for Blue attacking Brown, yes this is vulnerability as well. Brown should negotiate with Blue to see if he can secure the border before attacking Yellow. If not, then has to be careful or wait to see if Red also attacks Yellow as well.

4. Any war Yellow gets into will be corrosive, there has been a build up all around him. Should he instead not attack out and just slowly grow with his 5 reinforcements? What if Yellow were to peck away at Brown's North Africa so that Brazil has 6-9 armies and North Africa has 1-5 armies? Attack North Africa enough to weaken it but not take it. This would again invite Blue downward and leave North Africa in a weakend state and allow Yellow to expand North knowing his border in Brazil is a little safer.


If Yellow doesn't attack he wont get any cards. That can be a problem if the other two player get cards and more bonus every turn. The slow growth only works well when you are out of the way and there is nothing to gain by another player if he attacks you. When you are sitting on a very attractive continent such as SA, no one will let you grow. You will not be forgotten. Most of their strategy will rotate around you.

Pecking is good as well, though it may make an enemy out of the African player. He may simply get annoyed and go for an all out invasion on Yellow.

5. Finally, I still think Red will be in a tough spot IF Yellow is successful in dislodging Central America. Red will never be able to get enough reinforcements in hte short term and he is too far away to really make a stand. This allows Yellow to build on his success both in Brazil and Central America in subsequent turns. Just how is North America going to muster a good enough fight against Yellow short-term?


You are right. If Yellow can get a foot hold in NA, then he gets an advantage. From there everything gets simpler for him. However, he will need to remove Red altogether because Red has no one else to fight but Yellow. So there is a risk that they both may kill each other and others may come to get their land.

I understand that Yellow will be Red's target the rest of the game, but isn't he already? If Yellow doesn't move in, Red will be getting 5 armies extra to Yellow's 2 and eventually the odds will swing in Red's favor. The time to strike is now!

I look forward to your response, this is a great debate and I think we will all learn a great deal from it.

 

Yes, I agree a more powerful Red is a big problem.  I still think the solution is in diplomacy. Yellow needs to get one front secured through other means than placing armies on the border. Striking now can easily backfire if the dice is not in your favour. Grant, do you think if Yellow doesn't attack now, he has no chance later? Do you think that it's worth risking his existence based on the dice he has to roll to get Central America? If he gets bad dice he will end up in the map shown above, which is a pretty weak position. What do you think?


Ehsan Honary
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30 Dec 2007 3:29 PM  
I agree, bad dice rolls will kill you, but this is called RISK! I need to weigh my options after diplomacy. I will attempt to work out a deal with my neighbors and see what I can get and then formulate an attack plan from there. Your arguments are certainly persuasive and I appreciate the spirited debate.

I would like to move on and see what other problems arise with the other players. What should Blue and Brown do? How should he attack and what diplomacy should they engage in?

Grant Blackburn
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19 Feb 2008 9:19 PM  

Black is done for first of all, but him serving as a buffer for a few turns against green is crucial. It keeps Brown and Blue and Red safe and them able to attack elsewhere.

Yellow is trapped by two stronger powers and has to choose one direction and just go for it. Best interest to try and work with Blue. They can team up on one player both of their advantages. Blue would except because only has a little while till green comes a knockin. Blue needs to keep his ary size up yet still grow if he wants to keep Europe and fight green.

Inavading Red is good for both since they both keep their borders and have plenty of room to expand. Better for yellow because he stays away from Green and can eventually kick blue out.

Brown is better for  blue because he can greatly reduce his borders and conquer most of Africa and eliminate brown. This will give him enough power to fight green in a few turns. But must remember to keep his army large to make sure yellow and red don't take advantage of his expnasion.

Red must build up forces and take S.A. if he wants a shot at winnin. Treaty with black would be good for both.

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04 May 2008 3:40 PM  

The first thing I would ask is why is black set up that way.  It seems like he just has a bunch of armies scattered waiting to be conquered.  Also I'm gonna agree with Europa on this.  If yellow doesn't make a treaty with red (and if red is trtustworthy) then he really has to take central america or eventually be overun.  Yellow has 13 going up against 8, the odds are in his favor.  He can hold off red's attack or even convince red that he should leave (I once convinced my friend to run to japan after taking his central america spot and destroying his attacks on central).  If he keeps peace with brown he can potentially take North America.  If blue and brown form an alliance the game changes drastically, and an alliance with red is almost essential.  Black is basically a pointless buffer and really needs to reevaluate why he's playing this game.  Green can chill in Australia and make a move for the cards if an oppourtunity arises (also fight black if black attacks).

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