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Scenario 4: Avoid Being the Strongest!

Diplomacy, Tactics, Treaty

Article Rating:::: 2 Ratings :::: Saturday, March 3, 2007
 

Risk Strategies, Scenario 4: Avoid Being the Strongest

In this game you are playing as Red against other experienced players. You have worked hard to get to a position of power and are now the most powerful nation in the world. You have been getting fruits of your effort and as a result have ended up with a well-fortified continent with a large army that can be unleashed to the the world at will.

You made an early decision about your overall strategy and decided that you wanted to expand through South America. As a result you approached Yellow and made a treaty over the Greenland-Iceland border. Yellow proved to be hard to negotiate with and you ended up with a time limit on the treaty. The contract says that you will not attack each other for 5 turns over that border. 

You think:

  • Yellow seems to be interested in expanding to Africa

  • Green owns a very good strategic point in Middle East and can threaten both Africa and Europe from one country. Hence, both Yellow and Blue are nervous about this situation.

  • Blue is constantly under pressure from you and does not feel comfortable about the other borders either.

You carried on accumulating armies for the invasion of South America. You are also in possession of cards.

 

Risk Game Table - Scenario 4

 

Hence, this is a time when you can take advantage of your early rise to power. The world order is about to change very soon as others start to cash in their cards. You have an important decision to make. To attack South America in this turn or not. If you cash in and invade, you can probably conquer South America easily and end up with a large army at your border. However, can you contain the backlash. You would need to make sure that you wont end up as the absolute most powerful, as other players may all suddenly gang up against you. This may lead to your elimination, and you want to avoid it at all cost.

What kind of diplomacy would you use to deceive them. Would you wait a bit longer? In this case, how do you think the new world order will shape up. Can you assure them that they will not be the next victims? Can you count on Yellow not to break the treaty? Can you prevent others to make treaties against you?

 

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Comments

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:02 PM
It seems to me that from the viewpoint of blue or yellow, their position is vulnerable from all sides with strong neighbours on every side. Hence, they might be more willing to agree to a treaty or a common enemy. It would be vital to turn them against green or each other before they attack me.

I would ally with yellow and spread propaganda against green. Slowly, fortifying Central America while capturing territories one at a time in Asia, slowly cracking the green turtle shell. Then once I have my cards ready, attack blue up to North Africa, and hopefully the whole of Africa. This would crush blue immediately, and install me as the strongest player in the game.

However, it is possible that blue may get nervous and ally with green or yellow. If he allies with green or allies with yellow and yellow takes Middle East, then he would turn his attention towards me. I would then have to attack blue immediately before he can build up his forces. I would be able to concentrate in South America with my European and Asian border secure.

The other danger lies in yellow, blue and green allying against me. In that case, the only option would be to expand quickly, most easily through blue. Of course, it is possible to pacify yellow by offering Africa.

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:03 PM
here's an idea for you: I'd hit the bargaining table with green. Whatever he decides to do, work with. You could try to attack blue from two angles, since you have the troops for one big push, but not enough to absorb his counter attack. On the topic of yellow, you can break your treaty and attack when you get reinforcements, or you can get rid of his asian territories and make sure he doesn't get the extra territory bonus. Keep in mind that yellow has seven guys on your asian border, where your treaty doesn't count; if his puts his europe bonus/troops on it, he might be able to get through. Believe me: it's happened to me.

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:04 PM
I'd cash the cards, and take South America. Even if just 7 units survived the onslaught, the blues couldn't push out of North Africa becuase yellow wants to take it.

In this situation a border treaty with Blue should be sought so that you do not venture in Africa. It would be hard for blue to push into the middle east so I feel this would precipitate a Blue-Yellow war.

For a few turns this gives you the opportunity to concentrate on the Greens, who own most of asia, but it's poorly defended. Take a few easy countries and collect cards. When The pact runs out with yellow, take it's asian colonies (which should still be poorly defended as it's troops commitments will be defending europe).

By this point you should own most of Asia and moving towards Australia. Eventually it should work out that Blues or Yellows control Africa and Europe, But you'll control both the America and Asia, and be unstoppable!

It also occured to me that taking south america could cause a Yellow-Blue pact against Red. This would not be a good thing!

Planky

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:04 PM
I will not cash and try to take s. america in one go, and offer africa to yellow. Probably blue will fight back and i lose some of the territories, failing at collecting the bonus in next round, but by then blue, green or yellow may have cashed in their cards, and I can then collect a larger amount of armies and re-conquer s. america. Blue will eventually lose under the attack of red and yellow. After then, I'll fortify my borders, (especially the west border of n.america, make it seems un-approachable to green), and let green and yellow fight each other at middle east. After five turns, attack yellow.

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Sunday, April 15, 2007 4:05 PM
I would make a treaty with Blue, whom I assume is doomed. I would not cash my cards.

This is better than a treaty with Yellow in my opinion because attacking SA will elicit a reaction from Blue (who knows that if he retreats to Africa he's dead) which will result in either Green or Yellow ultimately taking Africa, which will mean either a +6 bonus or a +8 bonus against you. You can't take Europe easily without eliciting a two-pronged attack, and Africa would be beyond your reach. A promise of surprise attack on Australia would be risky, but could perhaps entice you to go this route.

A treaty with Blue, however, is easily enforceable (withdrawal from the border), and puts yellow in a rough spot. Blue will divert its energy towards defending its other flank, and an inevitable conflict between Europe, Africa, and Asia/Australia will develop.

This will ultimately work out in your favor any way it goes, because if Blue loses, you can take a basically defenseless SA (and Blue will realize his cause is lost, and therefore spend his last efforts on the 'agressors' in Europe and Asia, as well as creating no bad blood between the two of you.) and sit pretty with a +7 bonus and three borders with an eventual plan to crack either Africa or Europe before Yellow and Green organize against you. (Green will be especially slow to mobilize). Being able to remove the African or European bonus would sound the death knell.

If Blue wins the conflict, assumedly taking Australia or Europe, Green or Yellow (whichever is left) will be forced to remove the Africa bonus from Blue or lose. You use this chance to seize SA, again. Blue will either shift to a doomed Australia or a weak Africa.

Kikuichimonji

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Sunday, April 15, 2007 4:09 PM
Hi, I'm new to this forum...be nice :P

So first of all, I really like Kikuichimonji's idea with Scenario 4, just because I enjoy sitting in my own continent watching everyone else decimate each other.

Here's my proposal to do a little better, though:

I agree - do not attack South America this turn, and do not trade in. I would almost definitely succeed even without trade-ins (and possibly even hold it against Blue's counterattack) but there are two massive drawbacks:

-it will severely upset the balance of power, and Green or Yellow may well end up taking Blue's cards for himself

-it will make me look extremely powerful, and Yellow could decide to break his treaty. I may also face an Asian incursion from Green.

Therefore, I would instead put everything I had (8 armies) into either Kamchatka or Japan, and proceed to take Mongolia, Irkutsk, Yakutsk, and Siberia (in that order). Then move back to Kamchatka.

That plan retains the essence of Kikuichimonji's plan (having Blue, Green and Yellow at each other's throats) since I have no new continents and am not directly menacing anyone. At the same time I have leverage against Yellow not to break his treaty, because I have Siberia and my cards are not yet traded in; I can threaten him with an incursion into Europe should he try any funny business with NA. Plus, I get two extra guys from territories!

Thoughts?

Machiavelli

Ehsan Honary   By Ehsan Honary @ Monday, April 16, 2007 12:48 AM
Very nice solution by Kikuichimonji. Of course setting others against each other is always beneficial.

However, if you choose not to expand to SA, you only end up with two choices: reinforce current position, or expand in Asia. Expanding in Asia is a short term solution, while reinforcing may make you look vastly stronger than all others.

The current solution nicely address the problem of Blue and setting all others against each other. However, what would you do if in the middle of their conflict they all suddenly 'discover' that you have too many armies and they have to do something about it sooner than later.

I also like the extended solution explained above by Machiavelli. Getting Asian territories is a good short term plan. Depending on how the conflict progresses between yellow green and blue, you may need to react accordingly.

Since you have two treaties on two of your borders, you only have one front left. This is great news, though you need to avoid looking like a serious threat to all others. If they feel threatened at once, they will all start to attack you.

Suppose you wanted to maintain your current situation and handle your opponents through propaganda, so that they wont be inclined to attack you. What would you say?

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Monday, April 16, 2007 1:38 PM
Why thank you Smile

Just to clarify one thing: I don't propose actually having a treaty with Blue. I generally find permanent treaties too limiting to future expansion, so perhaps a time-limit or conditional treaty (a conditional treaty would be something like "I will not attack you as long as Yellow still has Europe") would be in order.

Propaganda-wise, for Yellow and Blue, I would say something like "I'm not really a threat to you, and I won't be unless you threaten me. All I want is my one Risk card per turn." Perhaps I could even work something out with Yellow where we continually trade possession of Ural, leaving one man at the end of our turn, simply for the Risk card. (This would also provide a valuable opportunity for a strike into Ukraine should Yellow become too strong.) Blue depends on my good will to retain South America and probably to stay in the game in any case, so he probably won't be attacking me anytime soon. The European border is much more poorly defended, after all.

I would also point out that attacking me would be a suicidal move in any case, since there are three equally balanced powers at the moment - Red, Blue, and Yellow. The first one to attack will cripple the second, but will in turn be crippled by the third. I will continually remind Yellow to watch his southern border and Blue to watch his African one. I would also refrain from pointing out that Green is bound to upset the balance of power, most probably in my favor - whether he attacks Yellow or Blue, I can hit the other one in the next turn and get both my major enemies out of the way.

For Green, I would simply fortify Kamchatka enough that it wouldn't be a viable option for him to attack. His Middle Eastern army seems poised to strike in any case, so I doubt he would double back and hit me from Asia. He's not a threat to me. Australia has too few armies and is too far away. I'll probably kill him off last.

Until Green disrupts the equilibrium, I'm perfectly content to build up my border forces ("purely for defensive purposes, of course"). I might put them in Central America and point out to Blue that if I had wanted SA, I could have taken it already, explaining to him that he is needed to keep the balance of power (but not that I will only need him until Green hits someone). Also, I would hope that someone invades a continent but doesn't get all the way through (say if Yellow hit Africa, but failed to kill off SA) in which case I would swoop in and take the crippled player's cards.

So that's the idea. Keep everyone at an impasse, quietly build my forces and collect my cards, and once there's an opening, smash into it.

Machiavelli

Sgt. Schultz   By Sgt. Schultz @ Monday, June 4, 2007 6:48 PM
I believe that I have an excellent solution that has not yet been mentioned. Read on and tell me what you think:

Note that the single territory under Blue authority outside of S. American and Africa is Yakutsk. During my turn, I would at least take that. This will make it very difficult for Blue to collect cards each turn, since every other enemy territory in his reach is a powerful border. Thus, Blue will have to single out a single enemy to fight to survive: Red, Yellow, or Green? He will surely think that I (Red) am too strong. But, if he goes after Green, his other borders will be severely weakened and will attract aggression from Red and Yellow. However, Yellow is a close target, and Yellow wants to expand into Africa anyway.

Basically, simply conquering the weak Yakutsk will trigger a bitter war between Yellow and Blue.

At this, Blue and Green will probably reach an agreement to go against Yellow. I would try to stay nuetral, but I would go against Yellow and not Blue WITHOUT A TREATY.

I would wait for a while until Yellow is no longer a threat, and then attack Blue in S. America and end in N. Africa. Blue will ultimatly lose, and Yellow will give his last against the Green-Blue Powers.

Thus, at the end, Red (myself) and Green will be left. With N. and S. America and Africa, I will easily end the game against Green, who will only have Australia and possibly Europe.

Europa   By Europa @ Saturday, June 30, 2007 7:14 PM
A treaty with Yellow is a good thing, and the fact that it is short means that you can attack there later when your position is stronger. Yellow in the meantime will help you take care of your other enemies, such as Blue to South and Green to the East. The only real fighting you need to do is in South America and possible Northeast Asia.

Do not turn in cards yet. Take out Venezuela and Peru, but do not attack into Brazil, this will only invite Africa to attack you. Keep a buffer state (a territory with one army in it) between you that he will need to fortify through first in order to attack you. Later in the game you can take South America when you have the armies to do so.

You will get 8 armies this turn to reinforce and with an already 2 to 1 lead in Central America, you can afford to put 3 armies there, take Venezuela and possibly Peru, fortify back to Venezuela and leave one army in Peru. You eliminate the continent and keep your defenses strong.

Next, the reming 5 armies should go in Kamchatka for some territory mining in Asia, slowly grow, taking out easy territories along the way until a threat emerges, then go after the threat. At this point, this means Yakutsk and Irkutsk, although you may want to keep the blue one around to take later after het gets beat down in South America by Red and Africa by Green and Yellow.

If it works, you expand you empire to 15 territories, take out a continent, get a card and keep your defenses strong. You also set your self up for next turn.

Next turn go for the jugular and take out the South American continent and potentially Blue altogether (depending on what happened in the interim) while shoring up your defenses in Greenland when the treaty expires. Asia should hopefully still be relatively quiet in your neighborhood, take out the last blue territory there if going for the cards and continue your slow expansion and preparations for subsequent attacks.


Denarius   By Denarius @ Tuesday, August 21, 2007 6:25 AM
This should not be too hard. It won't be easy against experienced players, equilibrium might be attained, but this will give yellow a slightly better chance to win.
I would try to offer peace to both blue and yellow and try to get them to eliminate green. This will take quite a few turns, and I will get some chance to stack up. Once I achieve critical mass, neither yellow nor blue would want to attack me. If I leave blue with SA, he will probably not want to pick a fight, as he has to fortify Africa. And same goes for Europe. Once green is eliminated, there will be a war over Australia, with the winner being the strongest and the one to target. Meanwhile just build up while they fight, possibly offer Asia to either of them. Once green and blue start fighting en masse I will release my forces and crush either. Probably taking SA first.

lwd   By lwd @ Sunday, September 16, 2007 6:20 AM
it would be very easy to convince other players that blue is the biggest threat, already controlling 2 complete continents and not powerful enough to attack central america, also yellow are already setting up to attack africa anyway so they wont need much of a push. an alliance with green will see them also attacking into africa hopefully they will clash with yellow there leaving me free to move accross northern asia and europe in time to break yellows hold there before my treaty with them runs out

dgerm   By dgerm @ Sunday, September 30, 2007 4:16 PM
I a deal with yellow is apporpiate. secretly behind blues back you ask yellow to attack africa while you attack South America. after blue is taken out of the game a treaty between Brazil and North Africa for 3 turns. You should take Yakutuk in Asia from blue and wait till yellow gets rid of blue from africa. instead of destroing blue before yellow you wait till yellow has taken blue from africa to take blue from the game so you get the cards. If you don't get blues cards then yellow will take out green and then you. Yellow should be exhausted and green will take advantage of this yellow will be crippled by greens attack with your and blues cards you try to elimante yellow if not its not a big deal then you march into australia

Europa   By Europa @ Thursday, December 20, 2007 8:32 PM
The question I would like to ask is: if you are North America, do you cash your cards now, or wait? North America can easily be seen as the strongest in the game, even more so than South America and Africa combined. I think getting people to see that Blue is the stronger of the two will help immensely, but how do you accomplish this? Should Red attack Venezuela to keep the number of reinforcements down for Blue? Should Red take out Iceland to do the same for Yellow if there is no treaty?

Sling   By Sling @ Thursday, March 6, 2008 7:32 PM
Get out of Asia make it look like you are not interested in attacking anyone. Try to start a fight between blue and yellow or even green. If one of them attacks you the other will take advantage of that. If they're divided they can't conquer you.

MHC   By MHC @ Tuesday, October 14, 2008 7:10 PM
There's a couple of strategies that are immediately obvious.

"I cash in and take South America and North Africa if possible."

The problem is that Blue might treaty with Yellow along the Europe/Africa borders. Most likely, one or both of them have a set. First turn, Blue'll probably take back North Africa and maybe South America if he cashes in a set. He won't fight for Middle East because he might lose it and even if he wins it Yellow can easily evict him.

Yellow at this point will cash in a set if he has one. Even if he doesn't, Red is doomed.

"I try to take South America without cashing in."

At which point Yellow betrays you and obliterates at least half of North America. Suicidal.

"I treaty with Green."

If Green accepts, the resulting sequence of events leaves you on top once Yellow or Blue is eliminated. Which is a good reason for him to refuse.

"I attack Yellow."

Also suicidal. You'll have enough power to do it next turn, but by then Yellow will have taken Africa or reinforced Iceland.

"I sit still, use propaganda and wait for them to slaughter each other."

Possibly, but if Blue treaties with Yellow anyways, you'll be a more lucrative target than Green.

"I take Asia."

Impossible at your current strength.

RiskDominator   By RiskDominator @ Saturday, June 8, 2013 12:49 AM
I treaty with blue, then take asia

MyWorld   By MyWorld @ Sunday, June 30, 2013 10:42 PM
the answer seems to be quite apparent, in that similar to the above post, you treaty with blue, and then break the treaty with yellow.


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