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Scenario 5: Stuck in Asia!

Diplomacy, Online, Treaty, Player Profile

Article Rating:::: 2 Ratings :::: Saturday, March 3, 2007
 

Risk Startegies. Scenario 5: Stuck in Asia

Let's look at this scenario in detail. The idea is to examine it from all angles and find out what is the best outcome.

History

You were originally in Africa, but you decided that it was too competitive and if you stay there you will be squeezed between Brown and Yellow. So you decided to leave and make your luck elsewhere.

You went to Asia and adopted a strategy of slow concentrated growth. All you wanted was not to get kicked out of the game.

Meanwhile, everyone else was busy conquering their continents secure. Blue has just managed to get his continent. Green will get Europe in one turn. Yellow and Brown already have their continents, but are aggressively competing over Africa.

Brown was clever earlier on. He made a treaty with Blue over Central America not to be attacked. He has since counted on this and has moved all his armies to a single front, which is helping him greatly to fight in Africa.

All players are quite experienced.

Blue

Blue, having secured his continent is interested to expand, but where? Next turn, if he gets cards as well, he would have a large number of armies to place on the map. Should he break the deal to get South America in one go? Wouldn't that be immoral? Brown is already fighting Yellow, so if Brown is attacked by Blue, he may have no chance to bite back. If the deal is broken, would Blue be able to sleep at night with a clear conscience?

Brown

Brown has counted too much on Blue, and feels vulnerable. At the same time he sees Africa within grasp.

Yellow

Yellow, the most powerful, is in a good defensive position. But he needs to expand. Africa, Europe or Asia?

Green

Green is looking to get a deal with someone, since he is in the middle of the world and is squeezed from every direction. Blue probably would be reluctant to make a deal as he already has a treaty. No one owns Africa yet, so no clear leader to approach.

Red

As for you, you are threatening everyone with the largest concentrated army on the map. Everyone can be a target. They all know that if they let you grow, you will be a big problem in the future. But no one is willing to do anything about it. It is too costly for them to attack you for no potential gain. In short, they are all doomed. You are exploiting this and slowly growing. You only have one problem: If they gang up against you, you will be out of the game in no time. You have to make sure that you keep them divided.

Here is the card information:

 

Risk Game Table - Scenario 5

 

To thoroughly analyse this we need to play it out from everybody's point of view. Once we know what are the best moves anyone can have, we can then work out how the game will progress.

Questions

Playing as Red: What would you do? Blue’s move may have a significant effect on the game, what would he do and what you do about it if you are Red? Would you carry on growing, or initiate an attack to control the game. How do you keep them divided.

Playing as Blue:

Would you attack South America? What would you do about Red?

Playing as Green: 

Who to make a deal with? What to do? Where to go? Red?

Playing as Yellow:

Where to expand to? Should you fight to death to get Africa, or give it up. The Red forced, what about them?

Playing as Brown:

Can I count on Blue? Is it worth? When should I change my attitude towards the risk I am taking?

 

Find more solutions in the book



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Comments

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:05 PM
Assuming that it's red's turn first, playing as red the first thing I would do it place the three armies on the mass (for 23) and then make a direct run to wipe out Australia and then branch out from there. Providing you get a decent split on the loss of armies in the attack red should have 6-7 armies to leave at indonesia when the attack's finished. It's highly unlikely that either yellow or green could make a successful attack to take back australia due to the distance and limited number of their armies. Green's got other things to worry about and yellow would either consolidate armies in an attempt to avoid annihalation or to mount an attack against red next turn (depending on card trades). Once in australia, build slowly out from there and see what goes on.

Blue's turn: Simple. Place most of the armies on central america and smash through to Venezuala. Don't take any farther. Consolidate borders.

Green: A little more difficult. First of all, secure Europe. Providing blue takes over venezuala, Brown's not likely to retaliate against you as they'll be focused on Blue, otherwise they're likely to go after Africa, either way, Brown shouldn't be an objective. If red's vacated to australia, I'd start to move units up to iceland to combat the blue threat, if Greenland isn't consolidated beyond the armies in the picture, a pre-emptive attack might be called for to take away the 5 bonus armies. If red is in the game, taking northern europe from ukraine and moving all the armies in may be a smart idea, leaves a border open but allows rapid retaliation against any invaders. A difficult position. As with all of the above players, no need to trade in this turn.

Yellow: If Red took out australia, they must cash in if possible. If yellow still has australia, don't cash and put all armies in kamchatca to take out alaska which will cripple blue. Start moving african armies back across to the siam border to consolidate against red's threat (providing it's still there).

Brown: If blue hasn't attacked from central america and is still has the continent and is vulnerable, attack it and then just consolidate. If yellow was attacked by red in the first round, consider taking most of africa on this turn. The north africa / europe border's troublesome and so some focus should be expended on it.

Anon

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:05 PM
Playing as red:

Need to secure a strong location of continent ASAP. Pour in all available troops on Afganistan then capture Australia. The rest depends on the moves of the other players.

Playing as blue:

Possible to break the treaty but it may have an effect on future games. You could also go through Europe and then extend from there. Alternatively, if you're not planning to play with the same players again, it is more viable tactically to wipe brown of the map. Europe would be harder to capture as green would focus solely on you, but he seems too weak to fight back, and it would be easy to hold it later. Also, the southern border would still be safe. If you extend south through brown, it would have to be quick before green fights back after he secures Europe. It would be easier to capture as it would be a surprise and he is still busy with yellow. My suggestion is to put everything at Central, capture South America and fortify Brazil. He won't be able to strike back without getting wiped out by yellow, so you can focus on green now.

Playing as green:

After Europe, the only viable way to expand is through North America. Joining the battle in Africa would be crazy, and you're not strong enough to hold Asia yet. I would ally with red for Central Europe, then take Europe and Greenland together before blue fights back. Red, yellow and brown would be too busy to worry about you.

Playing as yellow:

In great danger of getting wiped out by red. Pull back and focus. Assuming you come out of it alive, concentrate and spread slowly. (Note: my favourite strategy is to build up, and build up, and then smash Africa, leave it undefended, and capture South America in one turn. Depends on the situation though.)

Playing as brown:

Best choice is to clean up Africa and pull back to South America quickly. Cash in if possible, put a few in Africa and the rest in South America. Either fortify or push north. Fortifying will be difficult since he would get large reinforcements the next turn and could probably wipe you out. However, if you attack the others would see you as a dangerous aggressor. Decide based on your ability to defend Africa from possibly both green and yellow.

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Friday, March 16, 2007 12:05 PM
blue: dont know about you guys, but in the games i played we never break a treaty, as everytime one breaks a treaty, the world turns on him and he got wiped out first. As blue i will keep my treaty and go after europe. Green will not get his extra reinforcement before i get mine, so the idea is not to let green to have the chance to get his extra reinforcement. Yellow will be too busy defending Australia, so my west border will not be a big problem.

brown: i'll reconfirm (if possible) the treaty i made with blue and take Africa. Reinforce, and may use my armies to stop blue from taking Europe.

Green: try to get hold of Europe.

Red: go after australia.

Yellow: stop wasting my armies at africa and pull back to australia. brown has more armies in africa, and i've got australia to worry about.

Imported Post   By Imported Post @ Sunday, April 15, 2007 4:25 PM
I agree with you guys, the only viable strategy for Red is to get a continent, which means Australia. Assuming that Red succeeds (which he should), Yellow is as good as wiped out.

Next up is Blue, who made a treaty with Brown, which I find to be a bit strange. (I personally don't believe in permanent treaties. I always set time limits on them. Makes them much easier to keep.) So anyway. I'm going to go with the strategy I proposed for Red for Scenario 4: place everything in Alaska and take three or four Asian territories which nobody really wants to defend anyway. (I lost the last game partially because I didn't realize that my enemy was getting two extra armies out of Asian territories; this is influencing my mindset at the moment). No aggression, but quite a bit of gain.

Green must of course take Europe.

Yellow - I love how it says on the scenario "the most powerful" - by this time he should be out of luck and continentless. His only chance is to trade in and either push for Australia or Africa. If he succeeds in retaking Australia Red is as good as dead. If he succeeds in Africa Brown is in a bad position but Red and Yellow still have a chance. If he fails in both, or has no combination, he is doomed.

Brown, if he still exists as a credible power, will have to try for Africa and pray Blue is honorable (and stupid) enough to let him live.

In the long run:

Blue will (I believe) win the game. His control of a major continent ahead of anyone else is just too big an advantage. He will overwhelm Europe and then nothing can stop him. The only way this could be averted is if Red makes a surprise trade-in strike on Alaska in the next few turns.

Green, if he can survive the next turn's probable attack on Iceland, has a chance. He cannot cripple Blue or else the world will unite against him, but he cannot leave Blue alone or he will die. If Green lives through the next few turns with Europe intact, he has a shot.

Out of Brown, Yellow, and Red, only one will survive and become the third major power in the game, controlling Africa and at least one of the other two continents. This will probably last for about a turn before that power is annihilated by Blue and/or Green.

If I could choose which person to play, I'd say Blue for sure. Other than that...it all depends who gets a combination first.

Machiavelli

Europa   By Europa @ Saturday, June 30, 2007 5:15 PM
It seems clear that the strategy of taking Australia for Red is a priorty, but Red needs to be careful since this may weaken Yellow so much that he may be eliminated by another player and they get to take his cards. This would be to Red's disadvantage initially. If you can engage in enough diplomacy to stave off attacks, you can slowly grow so that when it comes time to turn in your next set of cards, the value is high enough that you can take at least half the board. Taking Australia should be tempered with the tactic of blocking a player so you can take out his last territory and thus get his cards. You need to be careful though since doing so means he may turn in his cards and wipe you out.

lwd   By lwd @ Sunday, September 16, 2007 6:58 AM
RED: only option is australia, atack hard and fast using fortifying move to put as many units as possible in indonesia, try making a treaty with green before boving, they need reassurance from somewhere and will feel safe knowing your huge army isn't coming their way, also the reds will be weak in asia after the australia campain so knowing the only real threat to asia wont attack would be handy.

BLUE: not real strong enough to mount a serious attack and survive the retaliation so it's all about claiming a card at the moment, the weakest target is asia so one attack to get a card other than that simply reinforce the borders for now.

GREEN: also has nowhere to go at the moment, take the remaining territory in europe and strengthen borders, consider trying to crack greenland to break the blue hold there.

YELLOW: having probably just been decimated by red the only options are to retake australia or to try to take africe, depending on how much red has left they are probably the weaker target so surrender africa agreeing to let brown have it freely if they will give you time to move out then try to wipe out red. if red is still strong then yellow must attack brown in africa if they dont have a set to trade in then they dont have a chance and are as good as out of the game.

BROWN: chances are yellow is now very weak, time to take advantage and take africa, with 2 continents controlled they will now be a big target, build up forces in brazil they will be ready to counter atack any movement into either continent.

yocheco619   By yocheco619 @ Wednesday, December 5, 2007 1:15 PM
I personally would not go for Australia if I were red. If you did you would be weak, you would not have yellows cards because of the leftovers in africa, and there is a ninety percent chance the players will gang up on Red. the players will not be able to trust each other. The general thought will be "if we gang up on him the last guy to hit him will get his cards". Thus, everyone will worry about concentrating on the people with continents. I would (if I have a trade in hand) would attack one territory in Asia than move back to the same spot. In that position you worry the other players and you are well suited to make a bull rush to any player.
The time to strike would be if a player hits five or four cards and is weak enough to be taken over in one turn. If that is accomplished I would trade those cards in and amass everything on one position again and wait until the time to strike occurs again.

Ehsan Honary   By Ehsan Honary @ Thursday, December 6, 2007 12:26 AM
Johan Pacheco, your strategy is similar to following the "Turtle Strategy". Basically as you said, you just wait and grow and obtain cards and if someone attacked you, you attack them and take them out. Of course if you can also easily take out a player with large number of cards, you will do so too. It is certainly a valid strategy, except that if every knows about it, it can be frowned upon when it is used. The problem is that if everyone does that, the game simply goes into a marathon and will never finish. Considering that a satisfying Risk is a game that does finish, this can become a problem. There are strategies that deal with this (as I have discussed in the book), and depending on circumstances if other players are sensitive to this move, it could end up being considered a step too far and you could get targeted badly. If you can pull it off, it is certainly an interesting idea.

Europa   By Europa @ Friday, December 7, 2007 11:34 PM
What if Red were to take a run at the small territories in Asia and hole up in Northern Asia. Before he does that he gets a treaty with Yellow, allowing him to take the smal, insignificant territories to go north, but prevents Yellow from attacking Red, thereby forcing him to go East? Would this strategy not force a conflict in Africa or Europe? The question is, how to get Yellow to buy into it or at least give yourself insurance that if he doesn't, you can still fend him off, assuming you don't go for Australia at first?

Dreams   By Dreams @ Friday, December 21, 2007 6:43 AM
I'm still quite new to the game, anyone please review my solution so that i could improve, thanks.

Red : (reds turn)
Offer to have a treaty with yellow :
Yellow move out of Asia
Red NAPs yellow on Aus and Africa
--
Why (I think) Yellow will agree to the treaty:

Aus for free, without the need for armies to protect it so that yellow could concentrate on Afr, if not, Aus is likely to be captured by red and Afr captured by brown.
--
Red:
If the treaty is successful, Red will capture Asia in 2-4 moves,(depending on diplomatic ties with blue and green) while keeping brown and yellow fighting with equal bonuses so that the fight would last.
Also encourage a treaty between yellow and green so that it will be likely to form a North and South Ame vs Europe and Africa situation.

If the treaty with yellow fails:
Encourage brown to take africa from yellow fast and assure that he would not be attacked by red after taking yellow as long as he does not pass middle east.
(thats like a free gift to brown so he has little reason to reject)
red gets indonesia so that yellow will live in aus but not get its bonus, while red waits for the last hit on yellow.
If brown takes too long to kill yellow, get green out of asia and get aus for bonus, camp army in china to get killing blow of yellow. (keep an eye out for blue, who may cash in and take the cards.)
Convince brown that blue thinks browns growing too strong and may attack into south america.
Green should be encouraged to attack brown when brown is spread out after taking africa.

Being harsh on yellow also warns players of rejecting treaties from you in future games.

Ehsan Honary   By Ehsan Honary @ Friday, December 21, 2007 7:45 AM
Very good analysis. Your strategy makes sense. Of course the only problem is to make sure you can get Asia secured. Also it is a good idea to get rid of Yellow for Australia, but securing Asia is always though and everyone will jump in to make sure you don’t get it.

The other issue is that once you go through an invasion, you will no longer be as powerful as you are now and may become a victim of chain reaction; i.e. you may eliminate Yellow and someone else comes to eliminate you.

Another risky part is if you can trust Yellow. He may make a deal with you, keep Australia only to come back later to screw your plans.

So moderated growth is preferred so at no point you become too weak.

In any case, very good post. If you have recently started playing that’s a very good strategy. Just keep playing Risk ;-)

darkman1009   By darkman1009 @ Saturday, November 1, 2008 9:19 PM
I am quite new to this game/forum, so don't post any suckish, bad, or "need to change" one comments on me. And review to see if i can improve this scenario outcomes.

Blue: Why, I think he'd secure his borders on greenland, 'cause green would like to expand north once he's done capturing his continent. If he's aggresive, I'd suggest reinforcing Alaska and take Kamchatka. Then, have a killer army of ten or twenty and kill all the ones with one on their territory, but watch out for red's 20. If blown by red, then I suggest "retreating" in one area and attack in another, such as kill blow brown from South America. Means if Plan A fails, then Plan B is to break treaty and kill brown out of SA.

Brown: KILL yellow out of Africa, then get his 'freakin extra armies and then reinforce Venezuela. But you should have to keep enough armies to defend Africa from Green, which may come south. IF lucky, have a treaty with green that he doesn't attack North Africa and Egypt, and brown won't attack west and south Europe. IF no, say I will give you $20 in the next day, and/or when the game is over. BREAK TREATY WITH BLUE, anyways you'll be reinforced. Just watch with red 20 army in Afghanistan.

Yellow: You'll know you will lose in Africa. Also, you feel vulnerable with red's 20 armies. So, the best way is to reinforce Siam, and reinforce any armies you want to attack. Do this 'till you have enough to cash. Then, get Asia!!! Just reinforce at the end, and play conservatively.

Green: Capture Continent. Then, reinforce in Ukraine and Iceland. Invade Greenland to stop blue from getting continent bonus. Blue will get all mad, and will place all troops in Quebec, so make sure you have enough troops to attack with.

And finally, Red: reinforce in Afghanistan. Then, kill yellow without making yourself too weak. Make sure brown dosen't kill you, and make sure you are prepared for Blue's Invasion of Asia. So, have a treaty or alliance are. Give him $50 dollars after the game. He shall accept, for if he not, he'd be really stupid not accepting real cash. Then split Africa, majority of 'em being brown's. Be careful!! DON'T BE TOO WEAK, OR YOU WILL BE KILLED BY GREEN OR BLUE.


Ehsan Honary   By Ehsan Honary @ Sunday, November 2, 2008 2:17 AM
Thanks Alex Phan for your comments. Interesting analysis. What stood out for me was the $50 bribe! kind of unorthodox I would say ;-) Has it worked before?

darkman1009   By darkman1009 @ Monday, November 3, 2008 6:56 PM
Ehsan, thank you about the comments.
Yes, it'll work on anyone. That's why you'd suspect people secretly bring in money before the game.

PS: Also, it's kinda' of a cheat to get people to not attack you.

RedzoneRacer   By RedzoneRacer @ Saturday, October 3, 2009 7:02 AM
^Even though I've never thought about it until today, diplomacy can have wondrous effects...
Okay, to business.
RED: As previously said, go south and attempt to control Australia. Once you have a firm foothold, take some of the North Asian territories, without looking too threatening or hurting Yellow too badly. Make sure you can still defeat Yellow should one player come in and attempt to do so himself. Once this is done, go for Alaska to stop Blue from getting that continent.

BLUE: Reinforce reinforce reinforce. His borders are too weak for his own good, but by taking small Asian territories, he can keep the card flow coming and build defense at the same time. Once he is strong enough, trade and blast Green out of the water. Keep holding the treaty with Brown, however.

GREEN: First off, get Europe. Then, get a treaty with the breadwinner in Africa and go either to block Blue or annihilate Yellow. This shouldn't prove too difficult, thanks to Red plowing straight through Yellow and your 8 reinforcements (more if you can trade). Once either is done, do the one remaining.

YELLOW: Probably the weakest player in the game. He needs to pull out of Africa ASAP. Then, turtle up in Northern Asia, concentrating like Red. Once you're strong enough, you can either retake Australia, smash Green in Europe, smash Brown in Africa, or rip Blue apart in NA. Whoever is either too strong or can be annihilated are prime targets.

BROWN: An interesting place he is in. First off, reinforce Venezuela. I wouldn't trust Blue in a heartbeat. Then, conquer Africa. Either go after Green, or make a treaty with him and hit either Yellow, Blue, or Red.

welshjr   By welshjr @ Monday, March 1, 2010 12:07 PM
This is a tough one. In my opinion, Brown is going to win the game, but Blue is in the best position right now. The other two strong players are Red and Yellow, but they're going to kill eachother. As Yellow, I would want to get rid of that 20 that Red has, but it would take a lot. As Red, I would take Australia from Yellow, but that might just be because of my love for Australia. This conflict will leave Blue as the most powerful. Also, Green is in a deceptively good position if Red and Yellow duke it out. While Red is distracted, Green can solidify Europe. But if Green starts to get too powerful, a battle with Blue is inevitable. This battle will leave both of them crippled, and after Brown takes Africa he will be powerful enough to pick up all the pieces. I don't care how unlikely it looks, if I were Brown I would win this game. The only way Brown wouldn't win is if his alliance with Blue is broken. Also, whoever wins in the big battle between Red and Yellow might pose some trouble, but I don't think it's too big of a problem.

Anonymous User   By Anonymous User @ Tuesday, March 29, 2011 4:44 PM
Probably not the most optimal solutions, but I like to give different perspectives that haven't been suggested yet. Red into Australia seems like the consensus so far.

RED:
Alliance with Yellow -- Convince Yellow that they are doomed in Africa. Ask them shift those forces into an attack on Green in Europe. If they don't agree, tell them they can kiss Australia goodbye (they should be able to see that you can do this easily and aquiesce to your demands). This alliance should last only until Green is eliminated. On your first turn, place in Kamchatka and take out Green in Yakutsk and Irkutsk; move your main force heavily into Ukraine.
You can arrange with Yellow either to let you take Europe, or offer them Europe in exchange for an uncontested conquest of Australia.

Blue probably won't cause you any trouble, but you should probably declare your intentions to them to put them at ease; if they want to assist in Green's destruction by creating themselves a buffer in Iceland, all the better. If not, assure them that Northeast asia can be their outlet for card-gathering, without the fear of reprisals.

YELLOW:
Assuming you don't go for an alliance with Red against Green, you have 2 other main options, which are more or less similar.

a) Alliance with Blue -- Blue needs to agree to make all-out war on Brown in order to save your war effort in Africa; they at least need to take all of South America. However, this paints a big bullseye on their back, so it may be a hard sell.
b) Alliance with Green -- This is the only other faction who is placed in a way to help you destroy Brown's offensive force in Africa. Partnership with them may lead to them taking Africa for themselves; again, this would make them a target for everyone else.

In either of these cases, you end up with a too-powerful ally, and once Brown is broken, there isn't much incentive to leave them alive; they will probably be wiped out completely, particularly if you can get Green AND Blue to agree to attack them.

c) Alliance with Red -- a little different than what Red is proposing; offer Red a free hand in Africa in exchange for them allowing you to keep Australia + buffer territories. Suicide your armies on Brown and let Red walk into Africa behind you. War between Red and Yellow would probably leave at least one of them dead and the other fairly weak compared to the others; working together can spare you in the short term.

GREEN:
Nobody has any reason to like you; either extort a battered player to do your bidding (negotiating from a position of strength), or simply pick one opponent and run roughshod over them, thus sending everyone else a message.

BLUE:
You're not as weak as Green, but both of your neighbors have reason to fear you. If you can secure neutrality from both, have fun playing the "trade territories in Asia" game. IMHO, if somebody asks you to assist them in an attack, do it. You're too strong not to grow, but if you grow any stronger, you're probably in for assaults from every direction. If forces align against Green or Brown, stab them in the back as their final nail in the coffin; just shrug your shoulders and say "you were screwed either way, I was just speeding up the inevitable"

BROWN:
You're boxed in, with no loose colonies outside of your power base to use as enticements. If Blue attacks, you're in trouble, so a pre-emptive strike is pretty much mandatory. You can take Africa on your own, unless Yellow gets outside help. If they do, bail on it and go into North America hard; let the new "allies" then fight it out for control of Africa. As much as people might not be happy with you upsetting the balance by attacking North America, you can rationalize that it was your only escape route in the face of impending doom, and that if Blue was allowed to grow anymore while 2 or more parties fought it out in Africa (and possibly elsewhere) we'd all be worse off.

p.d0t   By p.d0t @ Tuesday, March 29, 2011 4:49 PM
^^^ was posted by me

RiskDominator   By RiskDominator @ Friday, June 7, 2013 7:27 AM
here's a suggestion for red. convince yellow subtly that he should clean up the mess left by brown's war (and victory) over yellow in africa, and at the same time, behind green's back, convince NA that he should expand into europe. then take europe with the massive army.


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